A Critical Deficit of OBGYN Surgeons in the U.S by 2030

Objective: To estimate the OB/GYN Surgical workforce needed in the U.S by 2030 to meet the needs of our population. Methods: Using a population based analysis, the net supply of OB/GYNs was calculated. Our assumptions included: a ratio of OB/GYN’s to population of 27.10/100,000 women, practicing 25 years from Board Certification to retirement, 1200 graduates finishing from residency programs per year. Results: To maintain our current ratio per 100,000 population, we should have 50,135 OBGYN’s practicing for a population of 364 million in 2030. We estimate the supply to be only 30,000 and hence a shortage of 20,135. To rectify the deficit 44,135 residents will require training in OBGYN with the cumulative cost exceeding $14 billion. Conclusions: 1) We estimate a 40% shortage of OB/GYN’s as the best case scenario to meet the needs of the U.S population by 2030 if the current training paradigm stays constant. 2) The cumulative cost of training adequate numbers of OB/GYN’s is estimated at $14 billion and 3) In addition to revising the BBA of 1997 to permit more residents to be trained in the United States, additional strategies must be considered to provide an adequate workforce and ensure patient access to OBGYN’s.